November, 2019
Washington – Where do Democrats get their counterproductive and sometimes downright foolish ideas about how to win national elections? Unfortunately, some come from respectable sources that should know better.
Take The Atlantic, usually perspicacious but unaccountably off-target in publishing an article by Ronald Brownstein last month. Subtitled "Dirt Doesn't Vote," it confidently asserts Democrats should not worry about maps, favored by Donald Trump, that show a Republican red nation with Democratic blue enclaves limited to the coasts. Excerpt:
Trump’s map offers a misleading portrait because it pictures counties by geographic area, not by population. The map “says to me he has more support from cows than people,” sniffs the longtime Democratic strategist Tad Devine. “It’s not a representation of the population of the United States...."
As any good student of American Government should know, the cows-versus-people apportionment cases Baker v. Carr (1962), Westbury v. Sanders (1964), and Reynolds v. Sims (1964) struck a blow for "one person, one vote" at the state and local level, but not at the national level. U.S. presidents are still chosen by the electoral college, which places a premium on dirt and cows. Nor is the U.S. Senate apportioned by population; that's also by constitutional design, for better or worse.
Democratic strategists who do not recognize this and continue to plan futile campaigns around winning the popular vote should amend their thinking. Tad Devine, it must be noted, has been associated with the losing campaigns of Gore and Clinton, both of whom won the popular vote but not the presidency. Devine has plenty of company, including those who still do not want to hear the word "rural" brought up for discussion, let alone included as part of a 2020 election strategy.
Somewhere, red on the map must be turned blue by Democrats, not written off. Making blue states even bluer will not count. In practical terms, that means states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Ohio, all with plentiful dirt and many cows, must be vigorously contested by Democrats.
These states are winnable with the right strategy, which consists of (1) showing up and (2) offering a positive platform that makes sense to rural constituencies, where swing voters make all the difference. Key to winning in these states: not losing by large margins in the most rural areas, because such losses offset Democratic gains in the suburbs. As Heidi Heitkamp puts it, in one of the few sensible comments in The Atlantic article, "We're not trying to turn those [rural] areas blue, we are trying to turn them pink."
This should not be so difficult. Donald Trump is not personally popular with many rural voters on the margins, who would welcome a credible Democratic alternative. Trump's trade policies are hugely unpopular with farmers, who want "trade not aid." His promises on biofuels are not believable. His Secretary of Agriculture, George (nothing Sonny about him) Perdue, insults farmers as whiners and advises them to "go big or just go." A Democrat who shows up with a platform of scrapping the current Farm Bill and starting over to build local and regional farm markets, fighting rural epidemics of obesity and diabetes with nutritious food, and demonstrating respect for rural America will turn many areas pink, some purple, and a few even blue. Enough to win key swing states.
And the alternative? Ready to move in are those who see rural America as fertile ground for frightening ideologies. If coastal Democrats write off America's heartland, be prepared for a surge of white nationalists and far-right militias, according to those who have their fingers on the pulse of people increasingly in despair. This can happen when people fear their very extinction.
Publishing elsewhere are sensible voices who should be heeded, who offer valuable critiques of Democrats and their strategies, including those of House Democrats who are failing to protect rural America. Writing in The Washington Monthly, Jeff Hauser and Eleanor Eagan offer that "Democrats need to perform meaningful oversight of the Trump administration's assault on American farmers." House Democrats are just not getting it done. Collin Peterson should resign as chairman of the House Agriculture Committee in favor of someone who is up to the job.
But for every sensible voice, there are others who assure themselves that Dirt Doesn't Vote and are leading Democrats yet again into losing strategies. The red map of the country is not misleading. Even editing it so show population rather than area, to make it look bluer, is not going to change how the electoral college works. The Atlantic and its authors should know better.
