July, 2020
Washington, Lincoln, Berlin – Previously I've compared responses to the coronavirus pandemic in each of these three capitals. This blog is another in that series. All numbers are from the NYT as of July 6, 2020.
Berlin: Germany is recovering with a rate of 237 cases and 11 deaths per 100,000 population. Berlin is doing slightly better than the country as a whole, at 232 and 6. Success is due to early and decisive action plus aggressive masking, testing, and tracing. The latest virus reproduction rate, R, which Germany uses as one of its leading indicators of trouble, is 1.03, suggesting that Germany will again be taking quarantine actions to drive the rate down below 1.00 to reduce the infection's spread.
Washington: The United States as a whole is at 897 cases and 40 deaths per 100,000 population. R is 1.28, showing disturbing national growth. For comparison, Canada is at 285, 23, and its R is .73. Maryland, adjacent to D.C., is above the U.S. national average with 1161 and 54. Its R shows decline at .97 but has been increasing. Montgomery County, Maryland, is worse than the state average with 1447 and 72. The county has employed stay-home and masking orders, but the rising R suggests it moved too quickly to reopen. Like many jurisdictions, the county fudged its numbers to meet reopening standards. The county was hit early and hard by travelers returning from Europe in February and March, but the virus was in decline in April and May. That progress is disappearing, as the county has had no response to the virus resurgence. Ironically, NIH is headquartered in Montgomery County.
Lincoln: Nebraska is above the national average on cases, with 1031 per 100,000, but lower on deaths, at 15. Nebraska's R has risen to 1.05. Kansas, by comparison, is 583 and 10, much better, but the Kansas R is 1.17, likely reflective of recent resistance to Governor Kelly's mask order. Lancaster County, Nebraska, is at 585 and 4, relatively good in view of Nebraska's high case count.
What accounts for the wide differences? Why can't Nebraska be like Germany or Canada, and Lincoln like Berlin or Ottawa? Political leadership is lacking, without doubt. President Trump never grasped the problem, denied scientific evidence, and essentially gave up; he is now aiding the infection's spread. Governor Hogan of Maryland has been largely invisible. Governor Ricketts of Nebraska has made a succession of wrong calls, based on using wrong measures, and has even praised Trump for his handling of the pandemic. Ricketts has made himself a national laughingstock by cutting off federal funds to local offices that require masks, to compound his earlier mistake of not allowing Hall County a stay-home order as its medical community and mayor requested at a key moment in the infection's spread. He has also continued to look at hospital capacity, a trailing indicator, as his "North Star" rather than the number of cases, which he said cannot be limited.* Who is advising this man? Why can't he acknowledge others' success against the virus?
Governors all over the U.S. are now backtracking, reimposing new protections, realizing their mistakes. Of course economies must reopen, but they first must have the necessary political leadership and courage to beat back the virus and not cater to the know-nothing, do-nothing crowd. The U.S. simply has not had what it takes, compared to many other countries. That is a painful admission to make.
What is surprising is the lack of demand for the President to resign. Nixon was forced to resign for much less. That goes for governors, too: Ducey, Abbott, Reynolds, Noem, DeSantis, Stitt, Lee, and others. At least West Virginia Governor Justice, as he reversed himself, said the last thing he wanted to do was to mandate masks, but he said "it is the very thing I want to do the most because I know in my heart if we don’t we are going to have funeral after funeral."
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*To “the people who say, 'I don’t want any infections', that’s just not realistic, because it’s a virus. You can’t stop it." – Pete Ricketts
