June, 2025
Washington — End both the Iran-Israel and Israel-Gaza wars with one negotiation in which the Iranian clerics turn over power to a non-nuclear secular government and, in exchange, Israel halts the Gaza war and commits to new elections itself.
Lives would be saved all around — Palestinian, Israeli, and Iranian. Hamas, Iran's proxy, collapses. Israel gets what it wants, a non-nuclear Iran, and an off-ramp to its Gaza war.
The Iran clerics avoid a bloody popular uprising and a likely civil war. They are increasingly desperate for a way out, despite their bluster.
The USA and EU have the leverage over the parties to bring such a negotiation about, along with every incentive to avoid using military force only to see it fail in the long run, a real possibility and a likely outcome.
Update:
The above was written before the USA struck Iran militarily on 21 June. The strike came on the day the EU (France in particular) was engaging with Iran about a diplomatic solution. If Iran's likely counterattacks now drain American resources away from defending Ukraine, Russia will benefit. If the strike hardens Iran's resolve, at a time when the regime was about to topple, the strike could turn out to be a major strategic mistake.
