Washingon – The evidence so far suggests that the best way, and perhaps the only way, to control the novel coronavirus is to take early and decisive action against it. That is what South Korea, Taiwan, New Zealand, Germany, and a few other countries did, primarily with enforced stay-home, shelter-in-place orders.
A good measure of success is R, the reproduction rate of the virus. Below 1, the number of cases are dwindling; above 1, they are increasing. R measures in the aforementioned countries are well below 1. The U.S. is still above 1.
Maryland, with a stay-home order still in place, is below 1. Nebraska, with a stay-home suggestion, not an order, is above 1 and in fact has had the highest R in the nation for the past three weeks. Nebraska's ranking has not been reported by any Nebraska media, to my knowledge.
State-by-state R rankings for May 2, 2020, can be seen here.
The situation in Nebraska is likely to get even worse. Much of the coronavirus's spread started in Grand Island, a city with a meatpacking plant. On April 6th, a Grand Island radio station reported:
GRAND ISLAND, Neb. (KSNB) Grand Island's mayor and the director of the local health department painted a grim picture about the spread of COVID-19 in the community. During a briefing broadcast early Monday on Grand Island TV, Mayor Roger Steele and Central District director Teresa Anderson said they had appealed to Governor Ricketts Sunday to issue a shelter in place order for Grand Island. Ricketts declined to do that.
Other media gave Governor Ricketts' side of it:
Ricketts has chosen to follow local advice from Dr. James Lawler, co-director of the University of Nebraska Medical Center's Global Center for Health Security, who, instead of a statewide lockdown, has recommended improving compliance and adherence to social distancing and handwashing measures.
The strategy of such recommendations, with no stay-home enforcement, has not worked. One must wonder if UNMC really gave that advice and, if so, whether they are ready to take responsibility for it. It does not look good when UNMC wants to compete to become a national center to fight infectious diseases, but cannot fight one effectively in its own home state.
In the weeks since, Nebraska has seen other places with meatpacking plants become Covid-19 hotspots. Dakota City has hundreds of cases. Immigrant workers in the packinghouses, as well as many others, travel between cities and do not seem impressed by the Governor's stay-home and social-distancing recommendations, as opposed to orders.
The strategy of such recommendations, with no stay-home enforcement, has not worked. One must wonder if UNMC really gave that advice and, if so, whether they are ready to take responsibility for it. It does not look good when UNMC wants to compete to become a national center to fight infectious diseases, but cannot fight one effectively in its own home state.
In the weeks since, Nebraska has seen other places with meatpacking plants become Covid-19 hotspots. Dakota City has hundreds of cases. Immigrant workers in the packinghouses, as well as many others, travel between cities and do not seem impressed by the Governor's stay-home and social-distancing recommendations, as opposed to orders.
In Dakota City, they are more impressed with President Trump's endorsement of hydroxychloroquine, which surely is not going to reduce Nebraska's R and may actually heighten cardio-vascular risks.
Grand Island residents generally, in spite of pleas from their mayor and their health officials to stay home, when not at work, may not be acting in their own best interest. A Covid-19 survivor from Grand Island, treated for the disease in Omaha (narrowly escaping death), returned to his city only to find stores packed and "the people are still everywhere. It's just absolutely ludicrous.... People need to stay home and stay inside and get this under control."
Grand Island residents generally, in spite of pleas from their mayor and their health officials to stay home, when not at work, may not be acting in their own best interest. A Covid-19 survivor from Grand Island, treated for the disease in Omaha (narrowly escaping death), returned to his city only to find stores packed and "the people are still everywhere. It's just absolutely ludicrous.... People need to stay home and stay inside and get this under control."
Meanwhile, Mayor Steele, having struck out with Governor Ricketts, has appealed to Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue to visit Grand Island and see the situation for himself, now that President Trump has ordered USDA to keep all meatpacking plants open, regardless of Covid-19 spread.
But the Secretary can hardly support efforts to keep people at home, when not at work, when his President is busy encouraging Americans not to stay home, either as ordered or suggested. Maybe the Secretary would bring more hand-sanitizer for the packinghouse? He could offer more testing and tracing, but those offers from the federal government have proved ephemeral.
Many people are concerned about a second pandemic wave this fall. Unfortunately, we may not be close to ending the first wave. Watch the daily changes in R.
Watch how other countries that took early and decisive action are getting their economies up and running again while successfully protecting their populations. Watch Sweden, which has pursued less stringent measures to fight the virus, still has an R above 1 and a comparatively high death rate to show for it.
A great danger in America now is that the president will undermine the governors who have been leading the fight to drive R below 1. Governors must be ready for the social unrest that the president is irresponsibly fomenting, even to make plans and policies for their National Guards to maintain order. They must also consider the unthinkable, that the president would take over control of the National Guards and turn them against the governors' orders. That would turn debacle to calamity.
