June, 2025
Washington — End both the Iran-Israel and Israel-Gaza wars with one negotiation in which the Iranian clerics turn over power to a non-nuclear secular government and, in exchange, Israel halts the Gaza war and commits to new elections itself.
Lives would be saved all around — Palestinian, Israeli, and Iranian. Hamas, Iran's proxy, collapses. Israel gets what it wants, a non-nuclear Iran, and an off-ramp to its Gaza war.
The Iran clerics avoid a bloody popular uprising and a likely civil war. They are increasingly desperate for a way out, despite their bluster.
The USA and EU have the leverage over the parties to bring such a negotiation about, along with every incentive to avoid using military force only to see it fail in the long run, a real possibility and a likely outcome.
Update:
The above was written before the USA struck Iran militarily on 21 June. The strike came on the day the EU (France in particular) was engaging with Iran about a diplomatic solution. If Iran's likely counterattacks now drain American resources away from defending Ukraine, Russia will benefit. If the strike hardens Iran's resolve, at a time when the regime was about to topple, the strike could turn out to be a major strategic mistake.
Second Update:
To no one's surprise, the USA has now advised Ukraine that more defensive missiles are needed in the Middle East, so fewer are available to help Ukraine defend against Russia's attacks. Moreover, the military strikes against Iran may not have been as effective as first claimed and the unconscionable war in Gaza goes on. All of which means a comprehensive negotiated settlement is paramount, as outlined above.
