Lincoln – In a recent post, I created an index to illustrate how to compare leadership achievements or shortfalls in fighting the coronavirus among several large western democracies.
The same process can be used to create a leadership or L index among states in the center of the U.S. that have similar population characteristics and industries.
In this illustration, Kansas is set at 1.00 for per capita numbers of Covid-19 cases, deaths, and the arithmetic average of the two. With only 367 cases and 8 deaths per 100,000 residents, Kansas serves as a benchmark for good, or at least acceptable, leadership in its region.
L-Cases
|
L-Deaths
|
L-Average
| |
Kansas
|
1.00
|
1.00
|
1.00
|
Missouri
|
0.67
|
1.75
|
1.21
|
Iowa
|
1.89
|
2.38
|
2.13
|
South Dakota
|
1.68
|
0.87
|
1.28
|
Nebraska
|
2.20
|
1.25
|
1.73
|
Missouri does even better on holding down the number of cases, but not on deaths. South Dakota does better on keeping deaths low, but not on cases.
Nebraska and Iowa fare poorly in the index, for both cases and deaths. All raw numbers are as of June 8, 2020, as reported by the New York Times.
There is an obvious hypothesis to explain why Kansas and Missouri have fared better than Iowa, Nebraska, and South Dakota. The governors of the former states put shelter-in-place orders into effect early in the pandemic, so infections spread to fewer people; the governors of the latter never did, and more people were infected because of it.*
Politics likely had something to do with their decisions, as the governor of Kansas is a Democrat and those of the other four states are Republicans who felt pressures to downplay the seriousness of the pandemic to follow the example of their party's president, Donald Trump.
Politics likely had something to do with their decisions, as the governor of Kansas is a Democrat and those of the other four states are Republicans who felt pressures to downplay the seriousness of the pandemic to follow the example of their party's president, Donald Trump.
Politics is only one explanation for the leadership differentials; each state is different in multiple ways. But sometimes these differences are inapposite to expectations. Nebraska, for example, had a head start in holding down cases because public schools were not in session to spread infections at the outset of the pandemic. Nebraska was also fortunate to have local leadership call off attendance at the boys' state basketball tournament in Lincoln, further holding down the infection's spread at a critical time.
But all of that advantage and more was reversed in Nebraska when a Covid-19 outbreak occurred in Hall County. Local officials there asked the governor to issue a shelter-in-place order, but he refused and the epidemic spread both westward and eastward rapidly. Soon Nebraska had the highest virus reproduction rate in the country, a dubious title that lasted weeks. Those cases and deaths are now reflected in the L index.
Once again, this index can be used to calculate the numbers of cases and deaths conceivably accounted for by leadership decisions. Divide the L index into the raw numbers to determine what might have been. For example, had Nebraska been like Kansas, its cases might have been 7,106 rather than 15,634 (15,634/2.2), and its deaths 157 rather than 198 (198/1.25).
Are there better hypotheses that would explain these numbers? If so, I'd like to hear them. The coronavirus pandemic is continuing and the methods to constrain it are in much need of analysis, not to mention the necessity of holding leaders accountable for their decisions.
_____________________________________
* "Countries that have successfully contained covid-19 have this in common: They took early, decisive action. Without a vaccine, the most effective intervention is the shelter-in-place order."
-- Leana S. Wen
Are there better hypotheses that would explain these numbers? If so, I'd like to hear them. The coronavirus pandemic is continuing and the methods to constrain it are in much need of analysis, not to mention the necessity of holding leaders accountable for their decisions.
_____________________________________
* "Countries that have successfully contained covid-19 have this in common: They took early, decisive action. Without a vaccine, the most effective intervention is the shelter-in-place order."
-- Leana S. Wen
