June, 2020
Lincoln – Much of Nebraska's pundit class is describing the upcoming First and Second Congressional District elections in conventional ways, as contests between urban liberals and moderates against greater numbers of rural and suburban conservatives. They are not optimistic about the chances of either Kate Bolz in the First district, against incumbent Jeff Fortenberry, or Kara Eastman in the Second, against incumbent Don Bacon.
I couldn't disagree more, unless Bolz and Eastman themselves see their races conventionally, too. In which case, yes, they'll lose.
One group of voters that will potentially make an unexpected difference in this election is made up of veterans and military families, who constitute sizable numbers in both districts. Many of these voters are not comfortable with President Trump's performance as commander-in-chief, both at home and abroad.
At home, he has been challenged as being a danger to our very Constitution by General James Mattis, Admiral Mike Mullen, and hundreds of other defense leaders of unquestioned patriotism. Abroad, the President has squandered international good will by weakening our alliances and has not responded well to actual challenges, like China's takeover of the South China Sea. Moreover, President Trump has undermined the nation's military leadership over and over with his bizarre interventions in personnel cases.
President Trump last week put his thumb in the eye of veterans who want protection from fraudulent schools where they try to use their GI Bill benefits. Over 30 veterans' organizations pleaded with the President to protect veterans from these schools, rather than the schools from the veterans (as Education Secretary Betsy DeVos characterized it), but he refused, leaving countless veterans with neither benefits nor education.
Through all of this, Fortenberry and Bacon remain unmoved. Clearly, they are afraid of Trump and put their own political careers ahead of the country's needs. No profiles in courage are on the horizon.
None of this is lost on Nebraska veterans and military families. But the question is whether Bolz and Eastman will engage with these voters so as to give them an alternative to Trump's incumbent apologists.
Another group of voters that should make an unconventional difference in these two elections is made up of farmers and residents of rural communities. Many of these voters have not seen such bad times since at least the 1980s and perhaps even the Great Depression. They have been sacrificed by President Trump in his misguided attempt to use tariffs (shades of Smoot-Hawley) to deal with unrelated issues like intellectual property theft. They are not impressed with federal taxpayer bailouts because they want "trade not aid." They are shaken to their foundations by the breakdown of the food-chain this year, which resulted in shameful destruction of livestock that offended farmers' views of themselves as stewards of their land and livestock. They are concerned about the loss of topsoil, about which the President has never expressed concern as he cuts and cuts funds from conservation programs that farmers value.
But the question is whether Bolz and Eastman will listen to rural voters or write them off as a hopeless Trump constituency that will vote for Fortenberry and Bacon, regardless.
For the Democrats not to compete for the rural vote, as well as the military vote, would be a huge mistake.
There is another reason Nebraska voters may look at these races differently in 2020 and put less emphasis on party and more on country. The all-Republican delegation Nebraskans have sent to Washington has turned out to be weak when it comes to standing up for anyone, even the constituencies noted above. This delegation can be blown over like a feather by the President-bully Trump. Bolz and Eastman are both credible candidates who have exhibited backbone in their own lives as well as having impressive career accomplishments. They will attract voters.
Both of these races could go either way. Throw out the conventional wisdom this year if the challengers run smart campaigns.
